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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It commonly acts as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the largest improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

But the current competition is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is remarkably talented. It has been the season of comebacks. The league has been chaotic, with recent division winners falling away and recent underperformers rising together. Under an typical year, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with multiple other outstanding candidates.

Below is how the ideal ballot ought to be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to create magic out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a specific offensive vision. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the kind of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Somehow, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme wizard but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a ordinary year, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

Following an early strong start, there was a chance that the season would go off the track. A mid-year collapse had the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year argument has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Instead, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of peers.

Still